Roby Roby Who's Adobe

Early Panthers’ draft chatter has focused mostly on drafting a wide receiver in the 1st rd and an offensive tackle in the 2nd.  It wasn’t until this week that murmurs Carolina could take a cornerback in the 1st or 2nd rounds emerged.  These murmurs are mostly just fan speculation, but that is enough to get me excited about the potential addition of Bradley Roby. Roby would be a steal if he slipped to the 2nd rd and was still on the board when the Panthers came up at #60.  While it’s unlikely he will fall that far, one mock draft has it happening. It may even be worth it for the Panthers to consider trading up a few positions in the 2nd rd to have a better chance of landing Roby.  It would be worth it and probably cost less than you would expect.

Roby ended his 2012 sophomore year with many thinking he was the top corner prospect in college football.  Off the field troubles, resulting in a one game suspension, and a rocky 2014 start caused Roby’s stock to fall. It was Wisconsin’s Jared Abbrederis’s 10 catch, 207 yard performance, and a TD against Roby that caused his stock to plummet though. That was the second time in a troubled season start that Roby had been exposed by good, but not great, receivers.  Then again, Roby had another tough outing against Northwestern’s Rashad Lawrence, who racked up 149 yards on eight catches.

Roby struggled against the top talents that everyone thought he should shut down.  Analysts became critical, stating:

“The cornerback has been playing too soft on receivers, who are then capitalizing on the cushion they are being given for some big-time gains through the air. Since this is typically due to the pre-snap alignment of the junior defender, one would assume that this fault is on the coaching staff. When watching games, it is impossible not to notice the overall lack of aggression the defense exhibits.”

The fans were even less forgiving, piling on Roby in comments in sections throughout the net. Fan criticisms turned bitter at the end when some fans accused that Roby intentionally sat out the Orange Bowl to avoid Sammy Watkins in hopes of preserving what draft status he had recovered. Character questions, once again, continued to surround the Ohio star.  Ohio fans alluded that Roby was a soft.  Roby took this personally, striking back on Twitter stating, “The fact that people Tweeting at me sayin’ all this negativity is crazy to me. It makes me ashamed to even have played for y’all.”

This outburst may highlight the one thing that may allow Carolina to steal him in the second—maturity.

Roby admitted this as the most important part of his game that he needed to improve, stating that his return for a junior season, despite the rough start, was helpful in improving his “mindset.”  This was the focus throughout for the struggling corner.  He may have thought this partly behind him at one point when he stated:

"I'm just concentrating on doing my job and making plays for my teammates. Once you change your mindset from trying to please scouts, fans, other people to just making plays for your teammates and doing your job, that's when it all shifts.

That's when I got back to how I normally play."

One thing can be for certain, Sammy Watkins didn’t sit out the Orange Bowl. No, no…he ate it up.  Watkins dominance hopefully will help reinforce this idea that Roby was worried about his image going into the draft in the minds of NFL GMs.  If he slips, it will be to the Panthers benefit.

Roby shows great promise despite his 2013 troubles.  The 5’11, 192lbs corner has good size and amazing speed.  Word around Ohio is that Roby once ran a 4.26/40yd and consistently runs 4.3 speed in practice.  This is the type of speed can’t be taught and would allow Roby compete with speedy wide-outs like Mike Wallace, who torched the Panthers secondary in 2013. He has great ball skills and instincts, and isn’t afraid to jump a route, step up in rush coverage, or layout a big boy.



The great news is that Roby has a lot of room to improve, but demonstrates the talent to become a top NFL corner. He has the one thing you can’t teach—speed. He had a humbling last year in Ohio that I think will pay dividends in the NFL also. Roby has seen how the hype can dissipate quickly.  He has already been introduced to the idea that people’s views of a player’s potential and value hinges only on what they did in the last game.  This should serve as motivation for the young man.



Roby is mocked to be drafted in the mid-2nd round.  Most likely, Roby will go earlier than #60 overall. It would be ideal to grab him at #60, but the Panthers may need to move up a few spots in the 2nd round to land the young talent. Perhaps by trading their 1st round pick for an additional 2nd rd pick and 4th rd pick, Gettleman could get it done and address needs at WR, CB, and OT.

I know this is a bit hopeful, but that’s what so wonderful about draft speculation.

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Decker answer?

One of the most glaring holes in the Panthers’ offense this past season was at receiver. Many draft prognosticators believe Carolina will draft a receiver in the 1st Rd.  Fortunately, 2014 has a deep receiver class makes the potential for drafting a franchise receiver at 28th pick an actual possibility. The addition of a first round talent at such an important skill position will certainly improve our offense. 

How quickly will it be before the rookie addition positively impacts the Carolina’s offense? Immediately?  After two seasons?

Carolina needs to bridge the new and the old.  Steve Smith, Carolina’s franchise #1, is approaching the end of a phenomenal career.  At best, he has one 1-2 years left as the #1 receiving option. He could settle in nicely to a #2 role, but perform more like #1a.  Giving Smitty a little breathing room by relaxing his role offensively may even add a year or two to his career.

A great way for the Panthers to maximize Smith and this future franchise #1 pick would be to add a strong, consistent receiver to serve as an interim #1 during this grooming period. 

Eric Decker would be perfect. 

26 yr old Decker was drafted from the University of Minnesota, after only three years in college.  Decker reached 100 yards receiving 11 times as Golden Gopher and was targeted 354 times. Of those 354 targets, he dropped only 3 passes. That is stunning 99% reception rate.

I once heard Hall of Famer Cris Carter comment that if he dropped more than 3 balls in a season, he would consider it a bad season.  I’m guessing ole CC would deem Decker’s college career successful. 

Decker’s consistent play continued with the Broncos. He has improved statistically each season.  The biggest jump, unsurprisingly, came with the arrival of Peyton Manning, instantly doubling his reception totals.  Decker remained a highly called upon number, even with Wes Welker’s arrival in 2013. Decker was second on the Broncos’ roster with 87 receptions. He averaged almost 15 yards per reception in 2013, and was able to haul in 24 touchdowns over the last two seasons. To put that into perspective, the Panthers were led in receptions (73), receiving touchdowns (6), and receiving yards (816) by tight end Greg Olsen. Those are good numbers for a tight end, but should those be the numbers for your teams leading receiver?

 Many, who question Decker’s ability to be a big time #1 receiver outside of Denver, argue that he will not shine when becoming the focal threat in an offense not manned by Manning. They may be right, but Carolina would not need Decker to be AJ Green or Mike Williams.  It wouldn’t be like Decker was coming into an offense without a proven quarterback either.  Cam Newton demonstrated that he was more than capable by exhibiting, possibly the most underrated characteristic--consistency.  Carolina’s offense doesn’t need to the greatest show on turf.  Carolina needs offensive consistency.  Decker can help them do it. 

 Decker has NFL size at 6’3” 214 lbs. Great hands, quicker than he is fast, runs excellent routes, wide catch radius, total body control, goes up to get ball at highest point, and young, Decker could be a long term option for the Panthers. I see him as a hybrid between Ricky Proehl and Muhsin Muhammad. Now there are some drawbacks. He doesn’t have great speed, running only a 4.56/40yd at the 2010 combine. Decker’s modest speed will make it difficult to maintain separation from defenders who have good coverage skills, and he won’t take many catches to the house.  All those things that Decker’s detractors say, do have merit.  

So why is Decker the answer then? He has enough question marks surrounding him to hopefully keep the price tag down somewhat. I’m not confident Decker will command as much money as many think. GMs may hesitate to look at Decker as a true #1 receiving threat, even though he is the sexiest name on a large list of receiver free agents.  Maybe this says something about this class of free agents more than it does about Decker.  

This means Decker would be a great fit on a team that isn’t looking for a guy that will come in and be the franchise star, but looking for a consistent producer and potential mentor instead.  
Carolina is that franchise.

If Decker came to Carolina, he wouldn’t have the pressure or limelight that comes with the big free agent wide receiver acquisition because he wouldn’t even be the #1 receiver on the team. If the Panthers also drafted a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round, it would signal that Decker wouldn’t need to be the franchise #1 either. It would clarify Decker’s role in Carolina as team player and mentor. Decker would ease the transition from franchise to future by becoming an instant offensive contributor, but also by mentoring the rookie pick.   

This will all come down to cap room. I am hoping the high number of receiver free agents (50), the number of receivers coming out in the draft this year, the Deckers’ critics will keep the free agent market in check.  With properly structured contract, a little Gettleman magic, and the economic laws of supply and demand, the Panthers just could land Decker and end the Panthers’ receiving woes.

 Co-authored by Joe Riollano and Anthony Dunn

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Post it

The only thing Panthers’ GM Dave Gettleman repeated more than “cap challenged” in the post season presser was that he “doesn’t talk contracts.” I wonder why?  Perhaps it’s the indigestion anyone gets when looking at Carolina’s roster status. The Panthers have 21 unrestricted free agents, including Greg Hardy, Mike Mitchell, Ted Ginn, Jr., Graham Gano, and Jordan Gross. Add personnel needs at receiver, in the secondary, and signals that he hopes to lock up Cam Newton up for the long term, and Gettleman has a tough task ahead

Gettleman will certainly need to work some magic with a modest $16m in cap money. Saddled by big money, long-term deals for a war-weary group of veterans, Gettleman can’t cut and cash his way to more cap space in 2014.  The Panthers are on the hook for big bucks to several who offer little trade value.  So if Gettleman did miraculously talk contracts, I’m sure he would scream  “deals like Charles Godfrey’s are killing the Panthers’ cap!”

RD 1: Panther Fans on the Clock

Godfrey's contract status neatly sums up the challenges facing Carolina in 2014. Godfrey signed a nice 5 yr/$27m contract with $12.4m guaranteed in 2011.  His salary, like most, balloons towards the backend, reaching 5 million in base salary this year. If Gettleman decided to cut Godfrey, it would only free up about $2m in cap space at the tune of a $5m in dead money.  

On the face, it seems that $2m in cap space would be helpful in either signing one of those 21 free agents, two which were productive safeties, or freeing money for Hardy or Newton.  It’s not that clean, however. Gettleman won’t look at this as dollar for dollar savings. Cutting Godfrey would only make the Panthers short another safety, making Mitchell or Mikell that much more important.  Whatever he allocates to paying Mike Mitchell, Quintin Mikell, or some other freelancer would have to be less than the $2m in cap space freed if by cutting Godfrey. The difference, after even more added salary, would too negligible, too risky, and too costly to make such a cut.

Gettleman alluded that guys like Mitchell wouldn’t be satisfied as contract gypsies forever. Mitchell will understandably be looking for some contract stability in 2014 after his difficult journey back to starting status.

An infamous Al Davis project, Mitchell was drafted higher than most Mel Kiper sycophants expected. He had physical talent and potential, but he needed development. Analysts saw potential, but believed the Raiders could have gotten him later in the draft.  Injuries, that needed development, and playing for the Raiders seemed to validate their concerns. Leaving Oakland as a potential draft bust, Mitchell landed in Carolina fighting for a roster spot. Mitchell made the most of the opportunity by playing an important role in Carolina’s defensive success.

While Panther fans, including myself, clamor for Mitchell’s return, he won’t come cheap. Given Mitchell’s success in Carolina, he will want to capitalize, perhaps with a deal similar to Godfrey’s 4yr/$27.4m contract.  The Panthers won’t be able to pay Mitchell anywhere close, likely resulting in him signing a 3yr deal somewhere else.

Subsidizing a roster with 1yr mercenaries isn’t easy. Unloading big contract players coming of of injuries is even harder.  Such players, like Charles Godfrey and Jonathan Stewart are tough to trade and have little incentive to restructure. Why would players, whose NFL futures are in question, sacrifice a bird in the hand by restructuring for less?  

This is what Gettleman means by cap challenged and one of the reasons he won’t talk contracts. When asked about these big ticket, hard to move contracts, he said “it is what it is”--meaning that 16m in cap money “is what it is” and most likely won’t grow too much.

“It is what it is,” and it doesn’t look good. Godfrey and Stewart will be Panthers next year, which isn’t that disheartening until you think of losing Mitchell and Hardy to free agency. Gettleman warned of the possibility when he noted that every organization has had to let a “big dog” walk.

The Panthers roster will change significantly over the next season.  But be sure, Panther fans will see some of the old faces, whether they like the cost or not.

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